Three metrics. Ten stars. One verdict.
Gut feeling is a bad accountant. Score any decision on these three numbers and the same rule grades it every time.
★ Benefit
The genuine value, joy or utility you get. Be ruthless — comfort, habit and "it's faster" usually score low.
★ Raw Risk
Severity × likelihood of the worst realistic outcome, before you protect yourself. Irreversible outcomes score high.
★ Mitigation
How much of that danger you can actually remove with knowledge, gear, skill and discipline.
Score a decision
Drag the sliders. The verdict, residual danger and recommendation update live — try the seatbelt (1 / 8 / 1) versus a trained dive (8 / 7 / 9).
How the verdict is calculated
The system does two small bits of arithmetic, then sorts the result into a category. No black box:
Residual danger = Raw Risk − (0.6 × Mitigation), floored at 0.
The danger that's still there after you've done your homework.
Net deal = Benefit − Residual danger.
Is the reward actually bigger than the danger you can't remove?
The verdict rules, in order
- Unnecessary Risk — Benefit ≤ 3 and Raw Risk ≥ 5. Little reward, real danger. Eliminate it.
- Reckless Risk — Residual danger ≥ 7. You can't control it enough, whatever the reward. Step back.
- Free Lunch — Net ≥ 5 and Raw Risk ≤ 3. Big upside, barely any danger. Do it, consistently.
- Worthwhile Risk — Net ≥ 3. The reward clearly beats the danger you can't remove. Earn it, then enjoy it.
- Proceed With Care — everything else. It's on a knife-edge; your discipline decides.
The same rule grades every post on this site, so two reviews are always comparable. It's a thinking aid, not gospel — but it makes the trade visible instead of leaving it to mood.
See it applied
Real decisions, scored with exactly this system, each ending in a plan.
Read the risk reviews